World luxury business dynamics overturned by alarming increase in emigration by Chinese

Emigration, one of the major causes of the slowdown in China’s luxury market has been gaining pace this year. In September, Barclays released a survey showing that a stunning 47% of China’s rich—those with at least $1.5 million in net assets—plans to leave China within five years. Moreover, another 20% said they did not know whether they would stay. The country in second place, Qatar, was far behind China, at 36%.

These startling numbers for China are generally in line with other surveys—some conducted by state banks—and with a UBS report, released last month, showing the number of Chinese citizens with at least $30 million in net assets has been growing more slowly than the Asian and global averages, suggesting that many in this top category in China have been leaving the country.

Chinese outbound travelers hit 54.1 million in the first half of this year, an increase of 18.7% over 2013. For the entire year, the number of person-trips is expected to increase 18.2%, and spending is estimated to jump 20% to $155 billion.

Boxing Day 2014 at Selfridges, fronted by Chinese shoppers (photo Reuters)