Luxury goods industry on track for recovery

Bain & Co, the consult­ancy, expects luxury goods sales this year to fall 8 per cent – instead of the 10 per cent forecast in April – and grow 1 per cent next year to €153bn ($228bn), after two years of contraction. Growth will be timid in 2010 but it’s movement in the right direction. The decline this year in the mature markets of Europe and North America has been mitigated by growth in China and other emerging markets notably South Korea.

Bain forecast sales in 2009 would fall 16 per cent in the US, 10 per cent in Japan and 8 per cent in Europe compared with 2008. But these falls would be partially offset by 10 per cent projected growth in Asia, of which China accounts for 12 per cent.

Chinese spend on luxury goods is forecast at €6.6bn this year, against €44bn in the US, €59bn in Europe and €19bn in Japan, according to Bain.